Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. (300394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.22 - $175.73$100.21
Multi-Stage$44.76 - $48.88$46.78
Blended Fair Value$73.50
Current Price$167.80
Upside-56.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.56%44.87%1.010.300.240.200.120.110.090.090.060.06
YoY Growth--241.28%25.67%20.66%63.61%11.11%20.40%0.00%42.86%12.00%124.62%
Dividend Yield--1.67%0.36%0.89%1.38%1.02%0.97%0.94%1.61%0.75%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,832.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)554.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.49229.05137.43
Cash Retained (M)1,277.891,277.891,277.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.49-229.05-137.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)911.401,048.841,140.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.202.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.22$100.21$175.73
Upside / Downside-61.13%-40.28%4.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,832.431,951.542,078.392,213.492,357.362,510.592,585.91
Payout Ratio30.26%42.21%54.16%66.11%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)554.54823.751,125.611,463.231,839.982,259.532,391.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)748.26755.35762.45
Year 2 PV (M)928.77946.46964.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,096.711,128.191,160.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,252.721,300.901,350.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,397.391,464.891,534.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,433.8925,614.0626,839.39
Equity Value (M)29,857.7531,209.8532,611.84
Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
Fair Value$44.76$46.78$48.88
Upside / Downside-73.33%-72.12%-70.87%

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