Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ChinaLin Securities Co., Ltd. (002945.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.62 - $14.26$7.38
Multi-Stage$5.87 - $6.45$6.16
Blended Fair Value$6.77
Current Price$16.77
Upside-59.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.55%-7.04%0.030.090.080.110.070.050.030.070.020.20
YoY Growth---65.75%10.30%-28.89%57.47%51.17%50.97%-53.82%225.47%-89.41%213.37%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.75%0.55%0.78%0.60%0.33%0.21%1.32%0.40%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)342.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.2261.3936.83
Cash Retained (M)342.58342.58342.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.22-61.39-36.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)244.36281.19305.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.582,698.582,698.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.79%5.79%5.79%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$4.62$7.38$14.26
Upside / Downside-72.48%-56.00%-14.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.11508.55526.60545.30564.66584.71602.25
Payout Ratio30.24%42.19%54.15%66.10%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.53214.58285.13360.43440.71526.24557.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.79%5.79%5.79%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)200.89202.84204.80
Year 2 PV (M)249.90254.80259.75
Year 3 PV (M)295.73304.47313.38
Year 4 PV (M)338.53351.93365.72
Year 5 PV (M)378.43397.25416.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,384.6115,099.7715,843.09
Equity Value (M)15,848.1016,611.0617,403.54
Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.582,698.582,698.58
Fair Value$5.87$6.16$6.45
Upside / Downside-64.98%-63.29%-61.54%

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