Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Nanling Industrial Explosive Materials Co., Ltd. (002096.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.35 - $133.55$125.15
Multi-Stage$267.83 - $294.10$280.72
Blended Fair Value$202.94
Current Price$13.84
Upside1,366.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS105.10%21.92%0.220.030.200.010.010.010.010.010.010.04
YoY Growth--624.14%-85.11%3,266.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%0.00%-66.67%20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.26%1.60%0.05%0.06%0.10%0.08%0.16%0.09%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)816.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.62104.1462.48
Cash Retained (M)816.78816.78816.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.62-104.14-62.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)650.16712.65754.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.651,240.651,240.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate-20.44%-20.44%-20.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.35$125.15$133.55
Upside / Downside719.00%804.27%864.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.10887.25944.921,006.341,071.751,141.421,175.66
Payout Ratio1.96%19.57%37.18%54.78%72.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.32173.61351.28551.31775.861,027.281,087.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-20.44%-20.44%-20.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)216.17218.22220.27
Year 2 PV (M)544.64555.02565.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,064.361,094.921,126.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,865.141,936.862,010.64
Year 5 PV (M)3,075.003,223.533,377.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)325,523.32341,246.21357,570.86
Equity Value (M)332,288.63348,274.75364,871.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.651,240.651,240.65
Fair Value$267.83$280.72$294.10
Upside / Downside1,835.22%1,928.32%2,024.98%

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