Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd (002041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.45 - $0.67$0.56
Multi-Stage$0.82 - $0.90$0.86
Blended Fair Value$0.71
Current Price$9.20
Upside-92.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS167.33%-0.80%0.040.000.040.040.060.000.050.060.000.14
YoY Growth--6,340.77%-98.41%2.86%-41.67%22,097.08%-99.48%-7.14%0.00%-100.00%250.00%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.01%0.19%0.15%0.36%0.00%0.77%0.51%0.00%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.416.503.90
Cash Retained (M)25.6625.6625.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.41-6.50-3.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2519.1621.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)879.25879.25879.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.45$0.56$0.67
Upside / Downside-95.06%-93.95%-92.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.0451.5251.0050.4949.9849.4950.97
Payout Ratio50.69%58.55%66.41%74.28%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3830.1633.8737.5041.0644.5447.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.5927.8728.16
Year 2 PV (M)28.3528.9329.51
Year 3 PV (M)28.7129.6030.50
Year 4 PV (M)28.7529.9531.17
Year 5 PV (M)28.5330.0231.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)579.95610.15641.60
Equity Value (M)721.89756.52792.51
Shares Outstanding (M)879.25879.25879.25
Fair Value$0.82$0.86$0.90
Upside / Downside-91.08%-90.65%-90.20%

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