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Huangshan Novel Co.,Ltd (002014.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.27 - $155.61$145.82
Multi-Stage$25.01 - $27.34$26.16
Blended Fair Value$85.99
Current Price$11.20
Upside667.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.77%13.53%0.580.430.440.420.340.290.250.280.220.17
YoY Growth--32.96%-1.36%3.89%25.12%16.80%14.03%-8.77%28.44%24.41%7.49%
Dividend Yield--4.91%4.22%4.86%5.53%3.99%3.75%3.72%4.02%2.58%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)398.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4259.0135.41
Cash Retained (M)73.6273.6273.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.42-59.01-35.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-20.8014.6138.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)603.38603.38603.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.27$145.82$155.61
Upside / Downside625.65%1,202.01%1,289.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.11502.79535.47570.28607.35646.82666.23
Payout Ratio84.41%85.52%86.64%87.76%88.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)398.49430.01463.95500.49539.82582.14616.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)400.68404.48408.28
Year 2 PV (M)402.82410.49418.24
Year 3 PV (M)404.90416.53428.37
Year 4 PV (M)406.93422.58438.68
Year 5 PV (M)408.90428.65449.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,067.6413,698.8114,354.14
Equity Value (M)15,091.8815,781.5416,496.86
Shares Outstanding (M)603.38603.38603.38
Fair Value$25.01$26.16$27.34
Upside / Downside123.32%133.53%144.11%

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