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Multiples Valuation: Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Industry: Discount Stores Model: Peers Multiples Valuation

Valuation Snapshot

Winsorized Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $55.63 — $121.69
Selected (Average) $78.90
Upside to Live -46.96%
Full Range Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $59.16 — $158.19
Selected (Average) $100.24
Upside to Live -32.61%
Live Price $148.74

Industry Peers Data

TickerRankNameRev TTM (M) Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
WMT 1 Walmart Inc. 703,061 35.22 34.18 19.17 18.77 32.15 28.22
0I47.L 2 Costco Wholesale C 280,391 47.39 41.59 27.68 24.58 38.53 31.57
TGT 3 Target Corporation 105,242 11.20 11.23 6.93 6.93 15.39 13.10
WALMEX.MX 4 Wal-Mart de Méxic 55,699 19.40 17.71 10.90 10.17 13.59 12.56
DG 5 Dollar General Cor 42,118 17.00 19.52 12.66 13.46 21.71 21.99
BJ 6 BJ's Wholesale Clu 21,160 20.13 18.40 12.97 11.96 16.29 16.19
139480.KS 7 E-MART Inc. 19,582 - - 3.13 2.43 20.35 42.97
DLTR 8 Dollar Tree, Inc. 18,961 - - 14.29 14.90 18.05 16.53
7532.T 9 Pan Pacific Intern 14,433 32.71 29.09 17.40 15.53 24.03 17.11
PCO.WA 10 Pepco Group N.V. 8,433 - - 7.15 7.15 - -
2651.T 11 Lawson, Inc. 7,088 19.49 16.98 5.27 3.84 15.45 15.79
DMART.BO 12 Avenue Supermarts 7,070 106.95 85.53 65.32 51.19 34.36 29.82
141A.T 13 Trial Holdings Inc 6,048 37.77 37.77 16.07 16.07 31.47 30.35
FIXP.IL 14 Fix Price Group PL 5,401 4.39 4.39 1.87 1.87 3.92 2.88
PSMT 15 PriceSmart, Inc. 5,270 21.81 19.20 11.17 10.25 15.00 11.98
DOL.TO 16 Dollarama Inc. 4,851 41.57 35.15 29.83 25.83 29.64 26.66

Implied Valuation Analysis

Line Item Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
Winsorized Median Multiple20.9718.8011.1710.2517.1716.36
Full Range Median Multiple27.2624.1412.9711.9619.2016.82
Industry Multiple33.1729.2716.6114.7622.0221.12
Market Implied Multiple25.6329.4316.4317.4728.1828.54
Company (DG) Multiple17.0019.5212.6613.4621.7121.99
(*) Net Income / EBITDA / Revenue1,2771,1122,9212,7491,7031,682
Winsorized Enterprise ValueN/AN/A32,63028,17529,25027,514
Full Range Median Enterprise ValueN/AN/A37,90132,87732,70828,289
(-) Net Debt15,26815,26815,26815,26815,26815,268
Winsorized Equity Value26,78520,91317,36212,90713,98212,246
Full Range Median Equity Value34,81926,85722,63317,60917,44013,021
(/) Shares Outstanding220220220220220220
Winsorized Fair Value$121.69$95.01$78.88$58.64$63.52$55.63
Full Range Median Fair Value$158.19$122.02$102.82$80.00$79.23$59.16
Current Price$148.74$148.74$148.74$148.74$148.74$148.74
Upside / Downside-18.19%-36.12%-46.97%-60.58%-57.29%-62.60%
Safety Margin30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%
Buy Price$85.18$66.51$55.22$41.05$44.47$38.94
Buy / Don't BuyDon’t BuyDon’t BuyDon’t BuyDon’t BuyDon’t BuyDon’t Buy