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Multiples Valuation: Fortescue Metals Group Limited

Fortescue Metals Group Limited (FVJ.F)

Industry: Industrial Materials Model: Peers Multiples Valuation

Valuation Snapshot

Winsorized Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $40.97 — $58.27
Selected (Average) $51.26
Upside to Live 295.55%
Full Range Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $43.09 — $69.94
Selected (Average) $59.70
Upside to Live 360.63%
Live Price $12.96

Industry Peers Data

TickerRankNameRev TTM (M) Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
0K9L.L 7 Nucor Corporation 31,883 19.30 14.75 8.90 7.49 10.29 12.75
0Z4C.L 8 Sika AG 29,334 14.11 11.38 8.86 5.36 12.61 9.66
603993.SS 9 CMOC Group Limited 28,920 17.11 11.08 8.92 6.16 8.05 5.74
000878.SZ 10 Yunnan Copper Co., 26,498 27.07 22.37 19.63 20.60 44.52 26.53
0L5V.L 11 The Sherwin-Willia 23,276 33.15 31.11 22.41 21.07 21.02 25.11
0K69.L 12 Reno De Medici S.p 22,604 591.62 2,058.93 15.34 22.81 11.75 172.88
FMG.AX 13 Fortescue Ltd 22,485 3.40 2.78 1.74 1.49 2.92 1.99
FVJ.F 14 Fortescue Metals G 22,485 3.40 2.78 1.74 1.49 2.92 1.99
0NHS.L 15 Nutrien Ltd. 19,261 15.74 8.73 7.25 6.17 12.83 8.83
0I0H.L 16 Cleveland-Cliffs I 18,622 - - - - - -
VAS.DE 17 Voestalpine AG 17,957 27.71 27.71 9.74 9.36 9.78 14.27
VEDL.BO 18 Vedanta Limited 17,290 15.14 15.14 6.48 5.73 9.61 4.13
002237.SZ 19 Shandong Humon Sme 13,353 27.12 22.85 21.77 22.90 32.28 33.48
0HCB.L 20 Alcoa Corporation 13,264 7.29 7.29 5.85 5.05 58.96 4.03
601212.SS 21 Baiyin Nonferrous 12,828 175.83 147.04 11.14 8.92 11.42 17.06
0L8B.L 22 Southern Copper Co 12,335 26.13 21.01 14.33 12.35 14.60 14.12

Implied Valuation Analysis

Line Item Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
Winsorized Median Multiple18.2014.948.916.8311.5911.21
Full Range Median Multiple22.7118.089.338.2112.1813.44
Industry Multiple71.48171.5811.6011.1018.6225.04
Market Implied Multiple4.383.592.221.903.732.55
Company (FVJ.F) Multiple3.402.781.741.492.921.99
(*) Net Income / EBITDA / Revenue6,0247,34712,19714,2417,25810,646
Winsorized Enterprise ValueN/AN/A108,66397,26984,094119,303
Full Range Median Enterprise ValueN/AN/A113,780116,85688,414143,050
(-) Net Debt734734734734734734
Winsorized Equity Value109,652109,796107,92996,53683,360118,569
Full Range Median Equity Value136,823132,826113,046116,12287,680142,316
(/) Shares Outstanding2,0352,0352,0352,0352,0352,035
Winsorized Fair Value$53.89$53.96$53.04$47.44$40.97$58.27
Full Range Median Fair Value$67.24$65.28$55.56$57.07$43.09$69.94
Current Price$12.96$12.96$12.96$12.96$12.96$12.96
Upside / Downside315.82%316.36%309.28%266.08%216.12%349.63%
Safety Margin30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%
Buy Price$37.72$37.77$37.13$33.21$28.68$40.79
Buy / Don't BuyBUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY