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Multiples Valuation: Activation Group Holdings Limited

Activation Group Holdings Limited (9919.HK)

Industry: Advertising Agencies Model: Peers Multiples Valuation

Valuation Snapshot

Winsorized Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $4.27 — $8.61
Selected (Average) $6.87
Upside to Live 566.90%
Full Range Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $6.05 — $9.44
Selected (Average) $8.01
Upside to Live 677.61%
Live Price $1.03

Industry Peers Data

TickerRankNameRev TTM (M) Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
1351.HK 60 Bright Future Tech 304 - - 28.00 28.00 84.99 38.12
PLANB.BK 61 Plan B Media Publi 301 19.88 16.40 5.58 4.67 13.61 10.77
ALBIZ.PA 62 Obiz Concept SAS 293 - - 25.10 25.10 - -
AFFLE.BO 63 Affle (India) Limi 274 65.26 47.13 41.90 29.74 57.82 43.58
1860.HK 64 Mobvista Inc. 273 - - 35.60 23.29 34.92 29.26
MNTN 65 MNTN Inc. 273 - - 313.72 313.72 39.43 88.69
QUOT 66 Quotient Technolog 266 - - - - - -
9919.HK 67 Activation Group H 252 3.11 3.11 1.08 1.08 1.42 1.06
603466.SS 68 Shanghai Fengyuzhu 248 161.59 253.99 80.36 116.01 37.87 276.00
600826.SS 69 Dlg Exhibitions & 246 26.45 24.82 20.43 17.36 30.63 21.19
TRKA 70 Troika Media Group 240 - - - - - -
TRAD.ST 71 TradeDoubler AB (p 237 28.38 17.51 5.29 4.77 15.01 13.71
NCMI 72 National CineMedia 236 - - 16.54 20.03 - -
1753.HK 73 Duiba Group Limite 233 - - - - - -
7366.T 74 LITALICO Inc. 228 17.11 13.23 7.56 5.56 13.67 11.10
ELMD3.SA 75 Eletromidia S.A. 227 37.41 37.41 10.44 10.44 19.28 16.08

Implied Valuation Analysis

Line Item Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
Winsorized Median Multiple26.4517.5118.4818.7030.6321.19
Full Range Median Multiple28.3824.8222.7721.6632.7825.23
Industry Multiple50.8758.6449.2149.8934.7254.85
Market Implied Multiple4.224.221.851.852.431.82
Company (9919.HK) Multiple3.113.111.081.081.421.06
(*) Net Income / EBITDA / Revenue262637372838
Winsorized Enterprise ValueN/AN/A690697868803
Full Range Median Enterprise ValueN/AN/A849808929956
(-) Net Debt-40-40-40-40-40-40
Winsorized Equity Value680450729737908842
Full Range Median Equity Value730638889848969995
(/) Shares Outstanding105105105105105105
Winsorized Fair Value$6.45$4.27$6.91$6.99$8.61$7.99
Full Range Median Fair Value$6.92$6.05$8.43$8.04$9.19$9.44
Current Price$1.03$1.03$1.03$1.03$1.03$1.03
Upside / Downside526.09%314.47%571.19%578.44%735.89%675.35%
Safety Margin30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%
Buy Price$4.51$2.99$4.84$4.89$6.03$5.59
Buy / Don't BuyBUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY