Greentown China Holdings Limited (3900.HK)

Industry: Real Estate - Development Model: Peers Multiples Valuation

Valuation Snapshot

Ticker	Rank	Name	Rev TTM (M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA	Trailing EV/EBIT	Forward EV/EBIT
1109.HK	1	China Resources La	71,303	3.15	2.71	3.02	2.49	2.80	3.00
2007.HK	2	Country Garden Hol	70,970	-	-	-	-	-	-
3333.HK	3	China Evergrande G	64,462	-	-	-	-	-	-
Z25.SI	4	Yanlord Land Group	56,986	-	-	4.70	5.02	2.23	3.91
0688.HK	5	China Overseas Lan	49,749	3.62	3.69	4.33	4.48	6.31	4.39
0960.HK	6	Longfor Group Hold	43,277	3.10	3.03	7.63	7.15	12.72	7.39
600048.SS	7	Poly Developments	42,950	-	-	21.79	27.79	49.71	43.78
3900.HK	8	Greentown China Ho	40,638	9.51	11.05	5.57	5.00	5.94	5.33
000002.SZ	9	China Vanke Co., L	40,403	-	-	-	-	-	-
1908.HK	10	C&D International	36,917	3.34	1.11	3.62	1.11	8.11	1.10
1918.HK	11	Sunac China Holdin	26,933	-	-	17.15	15.21	-	-
0123.HK	12	Yuexiu Property Co	23,405	4.62	4.82	6.53	5.46	6.30	7.78
0016.HK	13	Sun Hung Kai Prope	19,664	6.89	7.66	5.90	5.69	6.33	6.53
0813.HK	14	Shimao Group Holdi	15,745	-	-	-	-	-	-
0817.HK	15	China Jinmao Holdi	15,060	-	-	16.23	18.08	27.66	24.29
601155.SS	16	Seazen Holdings Co	14,690	66.28	108.74	9.52	9.22	15.91	19.93

Line Item	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA	Trailing EV/EBIT	Forward EV/EBIT
Winsorized Median Multiple	3.34	3.03	5.90	5.46	6.33	6.53
Full Range Median Multiple	3.62	3.69	6.53	5.69	7.22	6.96
Industry Multiple	13.00	18.82	9.13	9.24	13.81	12.21
Market Implied Multiple	9.64	11.20	5.59	5.01	5.96	5.34
Company (3900.HK) Multiple	9.51	11.05	5.57	5.00	5.94	5.33
(*) Net Income / EBITDA / Revenue	338	290	2,642	2,944	2,477	2,762
Winsorized Enterprise Value	N/A	N/A	15,598	16,075	15,690	18,049
Full Range Median Enterprise Value	N/A	N/A	17,263	16,759	17,888	19,231
(-) Net Debt	11,506	11,506	11,506	11,506	11,506	11,506
Winsorized Equity Value	1,127	880	4,092	4,569	4,184	6,543
Full Range Median Equity Value	1,223	1,072	5,757	5,253	6,382	7,725
(/) Shares Outstanding	372	372	372	372	372	372
Winsorized Fair Value	$3.03	$2.36	$10.99	$12.27	$11.23	$17.57
Full Range Median Fair Value	$3.28	$2.88	$15.46	$14.11	$17.14	$20.74
Current Price	$8.74	$8.74	$8.74	$8.74	$8.74	$8.74
Upside / Downside	-65.36%	-72.97%	25.73%	40.38%	28.54%	101.02%
Safety Margin	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%
Buy Price	$2.12	$1.65	$7.69	$8.59	$7.86	$12.30
Buy / Don't Buy	Don’t Buy	Don’t Buy	Don’t Buy	Don’t Buy	Don’t Buy	BUY