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Multiples Valuation: Cathay Pacific Airways Limited

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293.HK)

Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services Model: Peers Multiples Valuation

Valuation Snapshot

Winsorized Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $23.64 — $50.29
Selected (Average) $32.37
Upside to Live 165.07%
Full Range Fair Value
Range (Low - High) $25.87 — $51.65
Selected (Average) $34.53
Upside to Live 182.80%
Live Price $12.21

Industry Peers Data

TickerRankNameRev TTM (M) Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
2646.TWO 1 STARLUX Airlines C 69,677 67.58 67.58 10.11 10.11 53.74 43.19
DAL 2 Delta Air Lines, I 62,920 7.94 7.94 5.67 5.67 8.12 9.01
UAL 3 United Airlines Ho 58,368 9.58 9.58 7.99 7.99 10.06 11.63
0HE6.L 4 American Airlines 54,192 13.68 13.68 8.48 8.21 - 18.93
LHA.DE 5 Deutsche Lufthansa 45,903 5.26 5.26 4.66 4.66 4.57 13.22
QAN.AX 6 Qantas Airways Lim 29,993 5.73 5.73 2.74 2.26 1.51 1.91
0293.HK 7 Cathay Pacific Air 26,936 3.74 3.12 2.99 2.68 5.62 3.81
600029.SS 8 China Southern Air 25,154 - - 18.64 10.49 14.93 151.75
EZJ.L 9 easyJet plc 24,510 4.23 4.34 1.96 1.76 - 4.33
AD2.VI 10 Air China Limited 23,835 119.58 119.58 47.23 35.98 - -
600115.SS 11 China Eastern Airl 19,295 - - 25.29 25.29 24.34 -
RY4C.DE 12 Ryanair Holdings p 17,700 10.82 10.82 6.08 6.08 3.11 10.08
003490.KS 13 Korean Air Lines C 15,736 9.01 9.01 5.43 4.36 43.30 11.60
C6L.SI 14 Singapore Airlines 15,340 6.60 6.60 5.92 4.62 12.73 11.34
9202.T 15 ANA Holdings Inc. 15,113 9.04 9.04 5.71 5.71 8.45 10.86
ALK 16 Alaska Air Group, 14,141 39.51 39.51 8.94 8.94 19.58 38.51

Implied Valuation Analysis

Line Item Trailing P/EForward P/ETrailing EV/EBITDAForward EV/EBITDATrailing EV/EBITForward EV/EBIT
Winsorized Median Multiple9.019.015.925.719.2511.34
Full Range Median Multiple9.049.046.086.0811.3911.60
Industry Multiple23.7423.7410.999.4817.0425.87
Market Implied Multiple4.273.563.222.886.044.09
Company (0293.HK) Multiple3.743.122.992.685.623.81
(*) Net Income / EBITDA / Revenue2,4502,9355,7246,3873,0474,499
Winsorized Enterprise ValueN/AN/A33,89236,48528,19751,016
Full Range Median Enterprise ValueN/AN/A34,80138,83434,71052,174
(-) Net Debt7,9607,9607,9607,9607,9607,960
Winsorized Equity Value22,06326,43625,93228,52520,23743,056
Full Range Median Equity Value22,14826,53726,84130,87426,75044,214
(/) Shares Outstanding856856856856856856
Winsorized Fair Value$25.77$30.88$30.29$33.32$23.64$50.29
Full Range Median Fair Value$25.87$31.00$31.35$36.06$31.25$51.65
Current Price$12.21$12.21$12.21$12.21$12.21$12.21
Upside / Downside111.07%152.90%148.08%172.88%93.60%311.90%
Safety Margin30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%
Buy Price$18.04$21.62$21.20$23.32$16.55$35.21
Buy / Don't BuyBUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY