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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSFA.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,417.29 - $30,425.36$14,086.26
Multi-Stage$3,406.62 - $3,726.47$3,563.62
Blended Fair Value$8,824.94
Current Price$8,480.33
Upside4.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.96%16.66%35.0028.1327.5025.6225.0025.0020.0017.5015.0011.25
YoY Growth--24.45%2.27%7.32%2.50%0.00%25.00%14.29%16.67%33.34%50.01%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.63%0.97%0.86%0.75%1.71%1.57%1.39%1.51%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,586,819.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440,849.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145,969.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)317,363.83198,352.39119,011.43
Cash Retained (M)1,145,969.311,145,969.311,145,969.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-317,363.83-198,352.39-119,011.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)828,605.48947,616.921,026,957.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,372.2210,372.2210,372.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.8991.3699.01
LTM Dividend per Share42.5042.5042.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.8991.3699.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend122.39133.86141.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,417.29$14,086.26$30,425.36
Upside / Downside-24.33%66.11%258.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,586,819.131,689,962.371,799,809.931,916,797.572,041,389.412,174,079.722,239,302.12
Payout Ratio27.78%40.23%52.67%65.11%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440,849.82679,797.27947,945.311,248,080.441,583,228.071,956,671.752,071,354.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)626,361.39632,298.47638,235.54
Year 2 PV (M)804,774.87820,103.57835,576.88
Year 3 PV (M)976,290.961,004,316.761,032,873.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,141,105.331,184,989.021,230,126.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,299,408.761,362,170.691,427,334.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,486,309.9631,958,810.1333,487,666.35
Equity Value (M)35,334,251.2736,962,688.6438,651,813.72
Shares Outstanding (M)10,372.2210,372.2210,372.22
Fair Value$3,406.62$3,563.62$3,726.47
Upside / Downside-59.83%-57.98%-56.06%

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