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PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,100.33 - $7,800.35$6,362.47
Multi-Stage$11,404.24 - $12,523.90$11,953.19
Blended Fair Value$9,157.83
Current Price$13,975.00
Upside-34.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001,200.002,250.002,600.000.002,600.002,600.002,600.002,600.00800.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-46.67%-13.46%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%225.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.10%8.65%8.23%0.00%6.33%3.14%3.59%3.97%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,095,373.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)962,044.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)133,329.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219,074.60136,921.6382,152.98
Cash Retained (M)133,329.00133,329.00133,329.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-219,074.60-136,921.63-82,152.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-85,745.60-3,592.6351,176.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.091,924.091,924.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share-44.56-1.8726.60
LTM Dividend per Share500.00500.00500.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-44.56-1.8726.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend455.44498.13526.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5,100.33$6,362.47$7,800.35
Upside / Downside-63.50%-54.47%-44.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,095,373.001,084,419.271,073,575.081,062,839.331,052,210.931,041,688.821,072,939.49
Payout Ratio87.83%88.26%88.70%89.13%89.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)962,044.00957,134.32952,226.62947,321.37942,419.00937,519.94992,469.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)887,548.36896,604.98905,661.60
Year 2 PV (M)818,801.44835,596.93852,562.94
Year 3 PV (M)755,361.34778,721.40802,558.18
Year 4 PV (M)696,819.98725,699.91755,468.38
Year 5 PV (M)642,800.51676,272.63711,124.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,141,433.7319,086,100.2820,069,716.06
Equity Value (M)21,942,765.3722,998,996.1324,097,091.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.091,924.091,924.09
Fair Value$11,404.24$11,953.19$12,523.90
Upside / Downside-18.40%-14.47%-10.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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