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Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA (CEEB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$882.14 - $1,582.07$1,482.63
Multi-Stage$251.09 - $274.88$262.76
Blended Fair Value$872.70
Current Price$37.49
Upside2,227.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.83%48.78%2.714.456.396.530.434.081.230.030.471.14
YoY Growth---39.02%-30.35%-2.16%1,427.68%-89.52%232.82%3,984.04%-93.62%-58.80%2,136.97%
Dividend Yield--7.04%11.41%16.59%17.65%1.07%10.47%4.15%0.12%2.10%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,085.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)792.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,293.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)417.00260.63156.38
Cash Retained (M)1,293.001,293.001,293.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-417.00-260.63-156.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.001,032.381,136.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.023.023.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.343.944.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.366.967.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$882.14$1,482.63$1,582.07
Upside / Downside2,253.01%3,854.74%4,119.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,085.002,220.532,364.862,518.572,682.282,856.632,942.33
Payout Ratio37.99%48.39%58.79%69.19%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)792.001,074.481,390.331,742.712,135.022,570.972,721.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,001.671,011.171,020.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,208.301,231.321,254.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,411.921,452.451,493.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,612.561,674.571,738.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,810.251,897.691,988.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,763.7961,602.1164,549.05
Equity Value (M)65,808.5068,869.3172,044.84
Shares Outstanding (M)262.10262.10262.10
Fair Value$251.09$262.76$274.88
Upside / Downside569.74%600.89%633.21%

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