Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Horizon Construction Development (9930.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.47 - $10.79$8.38
Multi-Stage$22.01 - $24.32$23.14
Blended Fair Value$15.76
Current Price$1.09
Upside1,345.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-20.25%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,793.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,791.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.74224.21134.53
Cash Retained (M)1,791.091,791.091,791.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.74-224.21-134.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,432.351,566.881,656.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.47$8.38$10.79
Upside / Downside493.82%668.36%889.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,793.681,775.741,757.981,740.401,723.001,705.771,756.94
Payout Ratio0.14%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.59321.68634.40940.821,241.061,535.191,625.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)303.72306.82309.92
Year 2 PV (M)565.51577.11588.83
Year 3 PV (M)791.83816.32841.30
Year 4 PV (M)986.181,027.051,069.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,151.781,211.751,274.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,068.3169,508.6473,090.82
Equity Value (M)69,867.3373,447.6977,174.25
Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
Fair Value$22.01$23.14$24.32
Upside / Downside1,919.64%2,023.13%2,130.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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