Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ferretti S.p.A. (9638.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.69 - $5.33$4.49
Multi-Stage$6.15 - $6.75$6.44
Blended Fair Value$5.47
Current Price$2.69
Upside103.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.060.020.010.020.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.97%196.75%91.08%-46.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.44%2.05%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7921.7513.05
Cash Retained (M)107.29107.29107.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.79-21.75-13.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.5085.5494.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.69$4.49$5.33
Upside / Downside37.18%66.85%98.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.97172.23170.51168.80167.12165.45170.41
Payout Ratio38.33%48.66%59.00%69.33%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6883.81100.60117.03133.13148.90157.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)76.1776.9577.73
Year 2 PV (M)83.0984.7986.52
Year 3 PV (M)87.8590.5793.34
Year 4 PV (M)90.8394.5998.47
Year 5 PV (M)92.3297.13102.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,650.861,736.821,826.33
Equity Value (M)2,081.132,180.862,284.53
Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
Fair Value$6.15$6.44$6.75
Upside / Downside128.57%139.52%150.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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