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Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (603323.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.07 - $209.50$184.82
Multi-Stage$26.36 - $28.86$27.59
Blended Fair Value$106.20
Current Price$4.97
Upside2,036.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.05%9.43%0.320.280.290.290.150.090.120.030.050.06
YoY Growth--15.18%-3.93%0.26%91.14%75.44%-28.04%246.27%-32.84%-19.57%-50.82%
Dividend Yield--6.63%6.60%6.77%5.95%3.46%2.13%2.05%0.58%0.48%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,026.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)493.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.31253.32151.99
Cash Retained (M)1,532.811,532.811,532.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.31-253.32-151.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,127.501,279.491,380.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.07$184.82$209.50
Upside / Downside1,068.34%3,618.62%4,115.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,026.542,158.262,298.552,447.952,607.072,776.532,859.83
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)493.73809.151,163.481,560.462,004.132,498.882,645.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)748.89755.99763.09
Year 2 PV (M)996.651,015.641,034.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,237.171,272.681,308.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,470.601,527.161,585.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,697.101,779.071,864.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,567.2046,719.8148,954.81
Equity Value (M)50,717.6253,070.3555,511.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
Fair Value$26.36$27.59$28.86
Upside / Downside430.46%455.06%480.59%

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