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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited

ID: 601888.SS SECTOR: Consumer Cyclical INDUSTRY: Specialty Retail
65.42
-0.86 (-1.30%)
Ref: 2026-04-24

Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM $15.05 - $18.88 $16.97
Multi-Stage DDM $13.68 - $15.11 $14.38
Blended Fair Value $15.67
Stock Price$69.04

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric 2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS 1.3261.6910.8561.4721.0000.7200.5500.5230.5020.253
YoY % -21.57%97.52%-41.84%47.16%38.89%30.91%5.20%4.08%98.68%8.39%
Yield 1.92%2.45%1.24%2.13%1.45%1.04%0.80%0.76%0.73%0.37%

CAGRValue
5 Year12.99%
10 Year18.98%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth -7.64% to -5.64% -6.64%
WACC9.00%9.00%
Fair Value $15.05 - $18.88 $16.97

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio 20.0% 12.5% 7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income 524.75 524.75 524.75
(=) Cash Required 104.95 65.59 39.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share 1.39 1.52 1.60
LTM Dividend per Share 1.326 1.326 1.326
(=) Adjusted Dividend 2.713 2.843 2.929

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income 524.75 489.90457.36426.98398.62372.14
Projected Dividends 401.45 122.47187.52243.38290.99334.93

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV 116.05 117.31 118.57
Year 2 PV 161.27 164.78 168.33
Year 3 PV 189.97 196.21 202.58
Year 4 PV 206.15 215.22 224.59
Year 5 PV 215.35 227.27 239.70
TV PV 3,252.71 3,432.65 3,620.48
Equity Value 4,141.50 4,353.44 4,574.25
Fair Value $13.68 $14.38 $15.11

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