Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Co.,Ltd. (600967.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.81 - $12.40$8.26
Multi-Stage$4.27 - $4.66$4.46
Blended Fair Value$6.36
Current Price$18.77
Upside-66.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.66%27.99%0.330.240.180.080.070.030.040.050.230.06
YoY Growth--35.34%38.13%109.80%21.19%98.51%-1.77%-24.04%-79.78%266.40%126.12%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.04%1.84%0.88%0.70%0.38%0.29%0.32%1.52%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)388.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.4065.2539.15
Cash Retained (M)388.96388.96388.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.40-65.25-39.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)284.56323.71349.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.231,701.231,701.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.81$8.26$12.40
Upside / Downside-69.07%-55.98%-33.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.00555.93592.07630.55671.54715.19736.64
Payout Ratio25.49%38.39%51.29%64.19%77.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.04213.42303.68404.78517.74643.67681.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.26194.09195.91
Year 2 PV (M)246.46251.16255.89
Year 3 PV (M)295.95304.44313.10
Year 4 PV (M)341.01354.12367.61
Year 5 PV (M)381.93400.38419.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,808.396,088.946,380.22
Equity Value (M)7,266.007,593.127,932.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,701.231,701.231,701.23
Fair Value$4.27$4.46$4.66
Upside / Downside-77.25%-76.22%-75.16%

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