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Tong Ren Tang Technologies Co. Ltd. (1666.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.71 - $30.35$20.68
Multi-Stage$22.16 - $24.34$23.23
Blended Fair Value$21.96
Current Price$4.50
Upside387.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.20%3.61%0.180.160.160.160.160.180.170.160.150.14
YoY Growth--12.50%-0.98%0.00%0.00%-11.11%5.88%6.25%6.67%7.14%12.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%2.67%3.21%2.35%3.92%2.63%1.89%1.71%1.17%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,082.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)651.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)216.50135.3181.19
Cash Retained (M)651.32651.32651.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-216.50-135.31-81.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)434.82516.00570.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.781,280.781,280.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Fair Value$14.71$20.68$30.35
Upside / Downside227.00%359.61%574.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,082.501,110.771,139.771,169.531,200.071,231.411,268.35
Payout Ratio39.83%49.87%59.90%69.93%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.18553.89682.71817.89959.651,108.271,173.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)516.08521.16526.24
Year 2 PV (M)592.69604.41616.25
Year 3 PV (M)661.57681.30701.41
Year 4 PV (M)723.26752.15781.90
Year 5 PV (M)778.24817.30857.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,115.6026,376.0427,686.57
Equity Value (M)28,387.4429,752.3631,170.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.781,280.781,280.78
Fair Value$22.16$23.23$24.34
Upside / Downside392.54%416.22%440.82%

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