Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Viña Concha y Toro S.A. (CONCHATORO.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,889.76 - $3,934.31$2,665.10
Multi-Stage$2,042.53 - $2,236.47$2,137.69
Blended Fair Value$2,401.39
Current Price$1,054.00
Upside127.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%0.00%28.6443.5029.7366.1230.0225.9124.9527.9228.0224.70
YoY Growth---34.17%46.32%-55.04%120.25%15.89%3.82%-10.62%-0.38%13.46%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%3.64%2.92%5.21%2.43%2.40%1.75%2.17%2.50%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,062.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32,166.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,895.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,612.409,757.755,854.65
Cash Retained (M)45,895.2545,895.2545,895.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,612.40-9,757.75-5,854.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,282.8536,137.5040,040.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
LTM Dividend per Share43.5343.5343.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.9848.9054.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend84.5092.4397.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Fair Value$1,889.76$2,665.10$3,934.31
Upside / Downside79.29%152.86%273.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,062.0281,257.3184,583.4088,045.6391,649.5895,401.0598,263.08
Payout Ratio41.21%50.97%60.72%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32,166.7741,413.0751,362.4362,056.9173,540.8585,860.9590,893.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate3.09%4.09%5.09%
Year 1 PV (M)38,081.7138,451.1038,820.49
Year 2 PV (M)43,431.3744,278.0245,132.85
Year 3 PV (M)48,253.3149,671.1451,116.48
Year 4 PV (M)52,582.9154,652.9956,783.60
Year 5 PV (M)56,453.4659,245.0862,146.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,270,667.681,333,501.981,398,797.77
Equity Value (M)1,509,470.441,579,800.311,652,797.24
Shares Outstanding (M)739.02739.02739.02
Fair Value$2,042.53$2,137.69$2,236.47
Upside / Downside93.79%102.82%112.19%

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