Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.68 - $190.17$134.38
Multi-Stage$72.98 - $79.71$76.29
Blended Fair Value$105.33
Current Price$138.70
Upside-24.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.60%20.25%0.640.560.510.470.391.180.330.240.220.21
YoY Growth--13.05%11.06%6.99%20.66%-66.69%252.33%41.51%9.86%3.57%106.38%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.36%0.45%0.53%0.34%2.39%1.03%0.83%1.07%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)458.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)405.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.6757.2934.37
Cash Retained (M)405.42405.42405.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.67-57.29-34.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.76348.13371.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.695.135.42
WACC / Discount Rate10.57%10.57%10.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.68$134.38$190.17
Upside / Downside-29.57%-3.12%37.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)458.33488.12519.85553.64589.62627.95646.79
Payout Ratio11.54%27.23%42.93%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.91132.94223.15324.53438.14565.15598.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.57%10.57%10.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.10120.23121.36
Year 2 PV (M)179.13182.54185.98
Year 3 PV (M)233.40240.10246.93
Year 4 PV (M)282.32293.18304.35
Year 5 PV (M)326.28342.04358.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,565.564,786.085,015.04
Equity Value (M)5,705.805,964.176,232.06
Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
Fair Value$72.98$76.29$79.71
Upside / Downside-47.38%-45.00%-42.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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