Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$265.20 - $312.45$292.81
Multi-Stage$95.31 - $104.49$99.82
Blended Fair Value$196.31
Current Price$57.60
Upside240.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.64%0.00%0.120.390.350.310.100.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---68.73%10.21%11.73%226.94%44.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.21%0.70%0.89%1.13%0.26%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)182.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.0439.4023.64
Cash Retained (M)182.80182.80182.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.04-39.40-23.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.76143.40159.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.63200.63200.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate4.73%4.73%4.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$265.20$292.81$312.45
Upside / Downside360.42%408.35%442.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.20335.69357.51380.75405.49431.85444.81
Payout Ratio42.01%51.60%61.20%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.40173.23218.81269.58326.02388.67411.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.73%4.73%4.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)163.85165.40166.95
Year 2 PV (M)195.75199.48203.24
Year 3 PV (M)228.11234.66241.33
Year 4 PV (M)260.93270.97281.29
Year 5 PV (M)294.23308.44323.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,978.1118,846.4619,748.04
Equity Value (M)19,120.9820,025.4120,964.06
Shares Outstanding (M)200.63200.63200.63
Fair Value$95.31$99.82$104.49
Upside / Downside65.46%73.29%81.41%

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