Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna (PKN.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221.87 - $606.10$342.31
Multi-Stage$154.18 - $168.27$161.10
Blended Fair Value$251.71
Current Price$82.10
Upside206.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.26%22.82%4.155.501.291.290.371.291.111.110.740.61
YoY Growth---24.53%326.52%0.00%249.77%-71.50%17.07%0.00%50.06%21.10%14.42%
Dividend Yield--6.10%8.31%2.21%1.70%0.58%2.32%1.11%1.31%0.74%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,732.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,819.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,913.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,146.401,341.50804.90
Cash Retained (M)5,913.005,913.005,913.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,146.40-1,341.50-804.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,766.604,571.505,108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
LTM Dividend per Share4.154.154.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.408.098.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$221.87$342.31$606.10
Upside / Downside170.24%316.94%638.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,732.0011,429.5812,172.5012,963.7213,806.3614,703.7715,144.88
Payout Ratio44.90%53.92%62.94%71.96%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,819.006,163.117,661.609,328.8511,180.4713,233.3914,009.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,600.285,653.375,706.45
Year 2 PV (M)6,326.156,446.646,568.27
Year 3 PV (M)6,999.357,200.287,405.01
Year 4 PV (M)7,622.547,915.688,217.20
Year 5 PV (M)8,198.248,594.229,005.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)144,244.78151,211.86158,445.58
Equity Value (M)178,991.34187,022.04195,347.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
Fair Value$154.18$161.10$168.27
Upside / Downside87.80%96.23%104.96%

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