Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited (NTV.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.16 - $31.43$25.36
Multi-Stage$32.33 - $35.41$33.84
Blended Fair Value$29.60
Current Price$24.90
Upside18.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%4.84%1.461.130.600.871.581.461.331.191.121.00
YoY Growth--29.20%88.33%-31.03%-44.94%8.22%9.77%11.76%6.25%12.00%9.89%
Dividend Yield--5.21%3.07%1.53%2.47%3.83%3.65%2.43%2.20%2.17%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.3141.4424.87
Cash Retained (M)112.35112.35112.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.31-41.44-24.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0470.9187.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Fair Value$20.16$25.36$31.43
Upside / Downside-19.02%1.86%26.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.55334.68337.84341.02344.24347.49357.92
Payout Ratio66.11%70.89%75.67%80.45%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.20237.26255.64274.34293.37312.74331.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.16%8.16%8.16%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Year 1 PV (M)217.18219.36221.53
Year 2 PV (M)214.21218.52222.87
Year 3 PV (M)210.43216.81223.32
Year 4 PV (M)205.99214.36222.99
Year 5 PV (M)201.02211.28221.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,123.884,334.364,553.35
Equity Value (M)5,172.725,414.695,666.01
Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
Fair Value$32.33$33.84$35.41
Upside / Downside29.84%35.91%42.22%

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