Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.25 - $15.17$12.60
Multi-Stage$19.13 - $21.02$20.06
Blended Fair Value$16.33
Current Price$14.42
Upside13.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)198.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.7624.8514.91
Cash Retained (M)107.30107.30107.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.76-24.85-14.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.5482.4592.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.25$12.60$15.17
Upside / Downside-28.94%-12.61%5.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)198.80196.81194.84192.90190.97189.06194.73
Payout Ratio46.03%54.82%63.62%72.41%81.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.50107.89123.95139.68155.07170.15180.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)99.04100.05101.06
Year 2 PV (M)104.44106.58108.74
Year 3 PV (M)108.03111.37114.78
Year 4 PV (M)110.09114.65119.36
Year 5 PV (M)110.88116.65122.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,423.952,550.172,681.60
Equity Value (M)2,956.423,099.473,248.19
Shares Outstanding (M)154.55154.55154.55
Fair Value$19.13$20.06$21.02
Upside / Downside32.66%39.08%45.75%

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