Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.39 - $44.37$31.86
Multi-Stage$20.80 - $22.72$21.74
Blended Fair Value$26.80
Current Price$13.77
Upside94.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%10.27%0.530.510.500.440.360.370.340.300.230.21
YoY Growth--3.82%2.55%13.08%20.59%-1.75%8.66%13.74%31.06%6.82%7.67%
Dividend Yield--3.85%4.05%3.43%2.35%1.95%3.22%2.09%1.76%1.72%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.910.570.34
Cash Retained (M)2.912.912.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.91-0.57-0.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.002.342.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.073.073.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$23.39$31.86$44.37
Upside / Downside69.86%131.40%222.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.554.795.055.325.615.916.09
Payout Ratio35.96%46.77%57.57%68.38%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.642.242.913.644.445.325.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)2.022.042.06
Year 2 PV (M)2.372.422.46
Year 3 PV (M)2.682.762.84
Year 4 PV (M)2.963.073.19
Year 5 PV (M)3.203.353.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)50.7453.2255.79
Equity Value (M)63.9766.8669.86
Shares Outstanding (M)3.073.073.07
Fair Value$20.80$21.74$22.72
Upside / Downside51.09%57.91%64.99%

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