Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Haynes International, Inc. (HAYN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.66 - $40.73$33.25
Multi-Stage$38.88 - $42.64$40.73
Blended Fair Value$36.99
Current Price$58.65
Upside-36.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.32%0.31%0.870.860.870.860.860.860.860.860.850.85
YoY Growth--1.08%-0.92%1.06%0.43%-0.02%0.04%0.19%0.33%0.42%0.53%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.89%2.16%3.61%2.40%3.25%2.68%1.99%2.33%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.504.692.81
Cash Retained (M)26.1926.1926.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.50-4.69-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.6921.5023.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.8312.8312.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.461.681.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.461.681.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Fair Value$26.66$33.25$40.73
Upside / Downside-54.54%-43.32%-30.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.5137.8938.2838.6739.0739.4740.65
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.10%66.07%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3115.9620.7125.5530.4935.5237.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)14.5314.6714.82
Year 2 PV (M)17.1517.4917.84
Year 3 PV (M)19.2619.8420.43
Year 4 PV (M)20.9121.7622.63
Year 5 PV (M)22.1723.3024.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)404.91425.56447.05
Equity Value (M)498.93522.63547.26
Shares Outstanding (M)12.8312.8312.83
Fair Value$38.88$40.73$42.64
Upside / Downside-33.71%-30.56%-27.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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