Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.32 - $625.99$269.96
Multi-Stage$69.06 - $75.52$72.23
Blended Fair Value$171.10
Current Price$42.44
Upside303.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.22%25.04%0.950.930.900.820.740.700.610.490.400.40
YoY Growth--1.94%3.61%9.52%11.08%5.23%14.71%26.41%20.52%1.97%287.83%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.14%3.23%2.35%2.02%3.04%2.12%1.46%1.34%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.512.70
Cash Retained (M)24.9924.9924.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.51-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7820.4822.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.32$269.96$625.99
Upside / Downside200.00%536.10%1,374.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0638.4040.9043.5546.3849.4050.88
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0716.3422.2528.8736.2444.4647.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.0415.1915.33
Year 2 PV (M)18.8719.2219.59
Year 3 PV (M)22.5323.1823.84
Year 4 PV (M)26.0527.0528.08
Year 5 PV (M)29.4230.8432.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)679.12711.92745.98
Equity Value (M)791.03827.41865.13
Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
Fair Value$69.06$72.23$75.52
Upside / Downside62.71%70.20%77.96%

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