Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$822.96 - $1,110.83$970.42
Multi-Stage$1,478.77 - $1,622.45$1,549.20
Blended Fair Value$1,259.81
Current Price$1,165.00
Upside8.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.71%-2.60%53.0034.0027.0016.0054.0074.9980.9973.99119.9976.99
YoY Growth--55.88%25.92%68.75%-70.37%-28.00%-7.41%9.46%-38.33%55.84%11.59%
Dividend Yield--6.46%4.00%2.83%1.84%6.71%9.20%5.83%4.71%6.22%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,362.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133,529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,833.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,072.4029,420.2517,652.15
Cash Retained (M)101,833.00101,833.00101,833.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,072.40-29,420.25-17,652.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)54,760.6072,412.7584,180.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,348.891,348.891,348.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.6053.6862.41
LTM Dividend per Share98.9998.9998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.6053.6862.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend139.59152.67161.40
WACC / Discount Rate10.15%10.15%10.15%
Growth Rate-5.82%-4.82%-3.82%
Fair Value$822.96$970.42$1,110.83
Upside / Downside-29.36%-16.70%-4.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,362.00224,014.12213,213.37202,933.37193,149.02183,836.42189,351.51
Payout Ratio56.73%63.39%70.04%76.69%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133,529.00141,995.30149,334.80155,636.47160,983.32165,452.78175,150.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.15%10.15%10.15%
Growth Rate-5.82%-4.82%-3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)127,553.08128,907.45130,261.83
Year 2 PV (M)120,502.19123,074.79125,674.57
Year 3 PV (M)112,813.80116,445.71120,154.75
Year 4 PV (M)104,821.10109,344.53114,012.80
Year 5 PV (M)96,774.04102,022.11107,495.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,432,230.261,509,900.301,590,904.01
Equity Value (M)1,994,694.472,089,694.892,188,503.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,348.891,348.891,348.89
Fair Value$1,478.77$1,549.20$1,622.45
Upside / Downside26.93%32.98%39.27%

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