Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.62 - $96.09$67.27
Multi-Stage$42.27 - $46.01$44.10
Blended Fair Value$55.68
Current Price$40.54
Upside37.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.73%9.51%2.262.552.691.811.390.880.910.460.320.74
YoY Growth---11.37%-5.11%48.47%30.33%57.64%-3.30%97.84%43.74%-56.75%-18.69%
Dividend Yield--5.89%6.64%9.54%6.08%6.91%5.42%4.52%2.21%1.65%5.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,634.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,400.807,125.504,275.30
Cash Retained (M)10,634.0010,634.0010,634.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,400.80-7,125.50-4,275.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-766.803,508.506,358.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,871.7919,871.7919,871.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.180.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.332.332.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.180.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Fair Value$48.62$67.27$96.09
Upside / Downside19.93%65.93%137.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,004.0060,393.2363,983.9667,788.1971,818.6076,088.6478,371.30
Payout Ratio81.35%83.08%84.81%86.54%88.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,370.0050,172.3654,262.9458,662.5963,393.5868,479.7872,493.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)45,222.2745,653.1946,084.10
Year 2 PV (M)44,083.8144,927.9445,780.07
Year 3 PV (M)42,956.1044,195.7945,459.11
Year 4 PV (M)41,840.5043,458.1945,122.34
Year 5 PV (M)40,738.1942,716.4544,770.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)625,110.86655,466.50686,990.11
Equity Value (M)839,951.74876,418.05914,206.55
Shares Outstanding (M)19,871.7919,871.7919,871.79
Fair Value$42.27$44.10$46.01
Upside / Downside4.26%8.79%13.48%

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