Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. (4928.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,446.20 - $3,869.46$3,096.05
Multi-Stage$3,093.43 - $3,369.02$3,228.73
Blended Fair Value$3,162.39
Current Price$4,465.00
Upside-29.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.39%13.09%224.94220.22214.93209.80205.00199.88179.97155.61124.49103.70
YoY Growth--2.14%2.47%2.44%2.34%2.56%11.06%15.65%25.00%20.05%57.77%
Dividend Yield--5.04%4.50%4.18%3.62%3.80%4.37%3.08%3.26%1.49%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,030.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,683.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,606.001,003.75602.25
Cash Retained (M)347.00347.00347.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,606.00-1,003.75-602.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,259.00-656.75-255.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
LTM Dividend per Share224.94224.94224.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend188.08205.71217.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$2,446.20$3,096.05$3,869.46
Upside / Downside-45.21%-30.66%-13.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,030.008,280.518,538.838,805.219,079.919,363.179,644.06
Payout Ratio95.68%94.54%93.41%92.27%91.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,683.007,828.647,975.898,124.708,275.048,426.858,920.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)7,049.777,118.817,187.84
Year 2 PV (M)6,467.806,595.096,723.62
Year 3 PV (M)5,932.996,109.006,288.46
Year 4 PV (M)5,441.595,657.885,880.56
Year 5 PV (M)4,990.105,239.265,498.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,776.9679,560.5483,493.77
Equity Value (M)105,659.21110,280.59115,072.53
Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
Fair Value$3,093.43$3,228.73$3,369.02
Upside / Downside-30.72%-27.69%-24.55%

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