Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hollwin Urban Operation Service Group Co., Ltd (2529.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.45 - $9.10$7.76
Multi-Stage$9.56 - $10.49$10.02
Blended Fair Value$8.89
Current Price$2.74
Upside224.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.040.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--591.55%-33.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%1.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.5717.8610.71
Cash Retained (M)107.66107.66107.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.57-17.86-10.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.0989.8196.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.51142.51142.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate10.19%10.19%10.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.45$7.76$9.10
Upside / Downside135.25%183.15%232.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.86141.44140.02138.62137.23135.86139.94
Payout Ratio24.64%37.71%50.78%63.86%76.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.2053.3471.1188.52105.57122.28129.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.19%10.19%10.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)47.9148.4048.89
Year 2 PV (M)57.3858.5659.75
Year 3 PV (M)64.1766.1668.18
Year 4 PV (M)68.7571.6074.54
Year 5 PV (M)71.5475.2679.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,052.831,107.651,164.74
Equity Value (M)1,362.591,427.641,495.24
Shares Outstanding (M)142.51142.51142.51
Fair Value$9.56$10.02$10.49
Upside / Downside248.95%265.60%282.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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