Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (0EXG.IL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.11 - $83.41$42.12
Multi-Stage$17.75 - $19.36$18.54
Blended Fair Value$30.33
Current Price$21.48
Upside41.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.00%7.49%0.680.580.790.290.350.330.640.690.290.65
YoY Growth--18.18%-26.52%172.93%-16.52%6.15%-49.07%-7.72%136.23%-54.74%95.00%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.14%3.64%1.33%2.41%1.98%4.85%4.68%1.75%4.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)388.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.0076.8846.13
Cash Retained (M)227.00227.00227.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.00-76.88-46.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.00150.13180.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.34627.34627.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.11$42.12$83.41
Upside / Downside21.56%96.11%288.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)615.00654.98697.55742.89791.18842.60867.88
Payout Ratio63.09%68.47%73.85%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)388.00448.47515.16588.63669.48758.34802.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)408.82412.70416.57
Year 2 PV (M)428.10436.25444.48
Year 3 PV (M)445.90458.70471.75
Year 4 PV (M)462.31480.08498.37
Year 5 PV (M)477.37500.43524.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,914.779,345.369,792.42
Equity Value (M)11,137.2711,633.5212,147.96
Shares Outstanding (M)627.34627.34627.34
Fair Value$17.75$18.54$19.36
Upside / Downside-17.35%-13.67%-9.85%

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