Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (0016.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.81 - $220.86$174.67
Multi-Stage$392.41 - $432.43$412.02
Blended Fair Value$293.34
Current Price$90.05
Upside225.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.004.614.914.914.914.914.664.163.863.42
YoY Growth---100.00%-6.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.34%11.92%7.75%13.12%5.05%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.83%4.97%5.29%4.24%4.96%3.52%3.52%3.37%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,589.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,306.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,579.004,736.882,842.13
Cash Retained (M)16,306.0016,306.0016,306.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,579.00-4,736.88-2,842.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,727.0011,569.1313,463.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
LTM Dividend per Share7.397.397.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3711.3411.99
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$136.81$174.67$220.86
Upside / Downside51.92%93.97%145.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,895.0037,516.0537,140.8936,769.4836,401.7936,037.7737,118.90
Payout Ratio56.97%63.58%70.18%76.79%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,589.0023,851.3826,066.3528,234.6330,356.9532,433.9934,334.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22,394.4022,622.9222,851.43
Year 2 PV (M)22,979.0623,450.4123,926.55
Year 3 PV (M)23,370.0824,092.8224,830.30
Year 4 PV (M)23,591.8624,569.6325,577.49
Year 5 PV (M)23,666.3124,898.6726,181.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,030,938.671,084,622.041,140,518.81
Equity Value (M)1,146,940.391,204,256.491,263,886.42
Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
Fair Value$392.41$412.02$432.43
Upside / Downside335.77%357.55%380.21%

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