Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. (000544.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Environmental ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.66 - $215.20$201.67
Multi-Stage$38.64 - $42.28$40.43
Blended Fair Value$121.05
Current Price$8.45
Upside1,332.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.49%58.73%0.980.150.250.250.250.250.230.030.010.01
YoY Growth--554.99%-40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.14%600.00%201.43%13.55%0.64%
Dividend Yield--11.60%2.03%3.90%3.95%3.49%3.94%3.63%0.36%0.08%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,060.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)736.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.14132.5979.55
Cash Retained (M)324.07324.07324.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.14-132.59-79.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.93191.48244.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)980.26980.26980.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$182.66$201.67$215.20
Upside / Downside2,061.60%2,286.66%2,446.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,060.721,129.661,203.091,281.291,364.581,453.271,496.87
Payout Ratio69.45%73.56%77.67%81.78%85.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)736.65830.96934.431,047.831,172.031,307.951,384.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)776.97784.33791.70
Year 2 PV (M)816.94832.50848.20
Year 3 PV (M)856.55881.14906.20
Year 4 PV (M)895.83930.28965.71
Year 5 PV (M)934.75979.901,026.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,597.3535,220.1236,904.99
Equity Value (M)37,878.3939,628.2641,443.57
Shares Outstanding (M)980.26980.26980.26
Fair Value$38.64$40.43$42.28
Upside / Downside357.29%378.42%400.33%

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