Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sikarin Public Company Limited (SKR.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.10 - $17.14$10.54
Multi-Stage$5.23 - $5.70$5.46
Blended Fair Value$8.00
Current Price$7.00
Upside14.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.82%16.83%0.180.170.200.080.070.070.050.040.040.05
YoY Growth--5.81%-14.91%157.47%13.42%2.02%42.11%17.80%-5.24%-13.44%28.65%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.68%2.17%0.56%0.86%1.52%1.11%1.06%1.11%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)676.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)412.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)135.2184.5150.70
Cash Retained (M)263.37263.37263.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-135.21-84.51-50.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.16178.86212.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,057.262,057.262,057.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.10$10.54$17.14
Upside / Downside1.43%50.52%144.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)676.05720.00766.80816.64869.72926.25954.04
Payout Ratio61.04%66.83%72.63%78.42%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)412.69481.21556.89640.39732.38833.63882.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)435.70439.83443.96
Year 2 PV (M)456.55465.25474.03
Year 3 PV (M)475.36489.00502.91
Year 4 PV (M)492.24511.17530.64
Year 5 PV (M)507.31531.81557.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,382.828,787.719,208.10
Equity Value (M)10,749.9811,224.7811,716.90
Shares Outstanding (M)2,057.262,057.262,057.26
Fair Value$5.23$5.46$5.70
Upside / Downside-25.35%-22.05%-18.64%

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