Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Value Line Select Growth Fund (VALSX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.56 - $20.45$16.81
Multi-Stage$19.89 - $21.76$20.81
Blended Fair Value$18.81
Current Price$35.21
Upside-46.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%4.78%0.810.720.690.660.000.000.560.520.500.50
YoY Growth--12.68%4.18%4.45%0.00%0.00%-100.00%7.28%4.74%-0.36%-0.44%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.07%1.61%1.56%0.00%0.00%1.70%1.69%1.42%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.652.281.37
Cash Retained (M)7.987.987.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.65-2.28-1.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.335.706.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7511.7511.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.480.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.480.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Fair Value$13.56$16.81$20.45
Upside / Downside-61.48%-52.24%-41.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.2718.4618.6518.8519.0419.2419.82
Payout Ratio56.29%63.03%69.78%76.52%83.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2811.6313.0114.4215.8517.3218.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Year 1 PV (M)10.5510.6510.76
Year 2 PV (M)10.6910.9111.13
Year 3 PV (M)10.7411.0711.40
Year 4 PV (M)10.7111.1411.59
Year 5 PV (M)10.6011.1411.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)180.46189.66199.23
Equity Value (M)233.75244.57255.81
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7511.7511.75
Fair Value$19.89$20.81$21.76
Upside / Downside-43.52%-40.90%-38.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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