Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Union Bankshares, Inc. (UNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.48 - $193.19$99.92
Multi-Stage$137.20 - $150.94$143.94
Blended Fair Value$121.93
Current Price$24.76
Upside392.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.21%3.35%1.421.411.371.291.251.211.171.131.091.06
YoY Growth--0.45%2.87%6.11%3.30%3.42%3.25%3.44%4.29%2.55%3.86%
Dividend Yield--4.50%4.61%6.20%4.15%4.17%5.37%2.57%2.23%2.53%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)4.874.874.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.603.454.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.182.30
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$62.48$99.92$193.19
Upside / Downside152.34%303.55%680.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3311.6011.8712.1512.4312.7313.11
Payout Ratio57.02%63.62%70.21%76.81%83.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.467.388.339.3310.3711.4512.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)6.997.067.12
Year 2 PV (M)7.477.627.77
Year 3 PV (M)7.928.168.40
Year 4 PV (M)8.348.679.01
Year 5 PV (M)8.729.169.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)584.74614.16644.76
Equity Value (M)624.17654.82686.68
Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
Fair Value$137.20$143.94$150.94
Upside / Downside454.13%481.34%509.62%

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