Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sanofi (SNW.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.12 - $123.92$98.99
Multi-Stage$103.25 - $112.95$108.01
Blended Fair Value$103.50
Current Price$82.21
Upside25.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.17%2.50%3.803.603.373.243.183.103.053.003.042.98
YoY Growth--5.61%6.86%3.99%1.80%2.69%1.62%1.70%-1.30%1.76%0.49%
Dividend Yield--3.73%4.06%3.36%3.50%3.77%3.86%3.87%4.59%3.59%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,297.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,772.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,525.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,859.401,162.13697.28
Cash Retained (M)4,525.004,525.004,525.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,859.40-1,162.13-697.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,665.603,362.883,827.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.031,238.031,238.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.152.723.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.853.853.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.152.723.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.576.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$78.12$98.99$123.92
Upside / Downside-4.98%20.41%50.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,297.009,511.119,730.159,954.2410,183.4910,418.0210,730.56
Payout Ratio51.33%59.06%66.80%74.53%82.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,772.005,617.526,499.457,419.038,377.529,376.219,925.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)5,098.925,149.265,199.59
Year 2 PV (M)5,354.815,461.055,568.34
Year 3 PV (M)5,548.155,714.085,883.29
Year 4 PV (M)5,686.575,914.456,149.12
Year 5 PV (M)5,776.926,067.736,370.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,355.61105,407.61110,661.05
Equity Value (M)127,820.98133,714.18139,831.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.031,238.031,238.03
Fair Value$103.25$108.01$112.95
Upside / Downside25.59%31.38%37.39%

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