Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Siam City Cement Public Company Limited (SCCC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$311.96 - $635.36$436.47
Multi-Stage$533.17 - $585.05$558.61
Blended Fair Value$497.54
Current Price$149.00
Upside233.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.37%0.24%11.869.419.009.634.888.719.1813.1611.5811.58
YoY Growth--26.05%4.55%-6.57%97.54%-44.02%-5.16%-30.22%13.69%0.01%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--7.46%6.75%6.45%6.28%2.94%7.32%4.12%5.04%4.05%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,452.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,299.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,152.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,090.48681.55408.93
Cash Retained (M)1,152.701,152.701,152.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,090.48-681.55-408.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.22471.15743.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
LTM Dividend per Share14.4314.4314.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.211.582.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.6416.0116.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$311.96$436.47$635.36
Upside / Downside109.37%192.93%326.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,452.395,574.035,698.395,825.535,955.506,088.376,271.02
Payout Ratio78.86%81.09%83.32%85.54%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,299.694,519.824,747.634,983.365,227.255,479.535,800.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)4,223.034,264.754,306.47
Year 2 PV (M)4,144.614,226.904,310.00
Year 3 PV (M)4,064.744,186.404,310.45
Year 4 PV (M)3,983.704,143.464,307.98
Year 5 PV (M)3,901.764,098.334,302.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)138,566.22145,546.83152,805.99
Equity Value (M)158,884.08166,466.67174,343.62
Shares Outstanding (M)298.00298.00298.00
Fair Value$533.17$558.61$585.05
Upside / Downside257.83%274.91%292.65%

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