Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pato Chemical Industry Public Company Limited (PATO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.81 - $5.36$4.58
Multi-Stage$7.17 - $7.84$7.49
Blended Fair Value$6.04
Current Price$7.40
Upside-18.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.95%-5.76%0.500.410.820.570.601.001.230.920.700.91
YoY Growth--21.91%-49.98%43.72%-4.99%-39.98%-18.70%33.66%31.54%-22.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.54%4.56%8.25%4.88%5.73%12.37%9.78%5.99%5.84%8.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4310.896.54
Cash Retained (M)1.701.701.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.43-10.89-6.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-15.73-9.19-4.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.13142.13142.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.06-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.06-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Fair Value$3.81$4.58$5.36
Upside / Downside-48.51%-38.13%-27.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.1485.1883.2681.3979.5577.7680.10
Payout Ratio98.05%96.44%94.83%93.22%91.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.4482.1578.9675.8772.8869.9974.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4575.2275.99
Year 2 PV (M)64.8666.2167.57
Year 3 PV (M)56.4958.2660.07
Year 4 PV (M)49.1851.2553.38
Year 5 PV (M)42.8145.0747.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)730.68769.23809.39
Equity Value (M)1,018.481,065.241,113.82
Shares Outstanding (M)142.13142.13142.13
Fair Value$7.17$7.49$7.84
Upside / Downside-3.16%1.28%5.90%

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