Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.06 - $57.23$44.97
Multi-Stage$40.72 - $44.54$42.59
Blended Fair Value$43.78
Current Price$88.84
Upside-50.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.63%0.00%1.060.990.990.940.930.931.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.25%0.00%4.55%1.54%0.00%-12.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.18%1.82%1.52%1.67%5.40%4.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.2027.0016.20
Cash Retained (M)140.00140.00140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.20-27.00-16.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.80113.00123.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.611.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$35.06$44.97$57.23
Upside / Downside-60.53%-49.38%-35.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.00223.08230.39237.93245.73253.78261.39
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.00102.95131.58161.97194.22228.40241.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)93.1294.0394.94
Year 2 PV (M)107.67109.78111.92
Year 3 PV (M)119.89123.44127.06
Year 4 PV (M)130.04135.20140.52
Year 5 PV (M)138.34145.24152.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,260.992,373.712,490.88
Equity Value (M)2,850.062,981.413,117.73
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
Fair Value$40.72$42.59$44.54
Upside / Downside-54.17%-52.06%-49.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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