Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.91 - $180.88$126.96
Multi-Stage$126.06 - $138.39$132.11
Blended Fair Value$129.53
Current Price$62.97
Upside105.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-18.71%3.83%2.082.974.682.944.905.862.482.424.811.92
YoY Growth---29.87%-36.66%59.07%-39.90%-16.41%136.43%2.48%-49.76%151.11%34.17%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.09%4.70%3.85%6.06%7.94%2.57%3.40%7.20%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.208.254.95
Cash Retained (M)48.5148.5148.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.20-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.3140.2643.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.504.925.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$91.91$126.96$180.88
Upside / Downside45.95%101.62%187.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.0067.8769.7971.7673.7975.8878.16
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4926.6136.2246.3657.0468.2972.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)24.6724.9125.15
Year 2 PV (M)31.1331.7532.37
Year 3 PV (M)36.9438.0439.16
Year 4 PV (M)42.1443.8245.55
Year 5 PV (M)46.7749.1151.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,296.911,361.861,429.38
Equity Value (M)1,478.561,549.481,623.14
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
Fair Value$126.06$132.11$138.39
Upside / Downside100.19%109.79%119.77%

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