Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.63 - $187.30$144.83
Multi-Stage$254.05 - $279.58$266.56
Blended Fair Value$205.70
Current Price$210.50
Upside-2.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.51%6.75%4.494.424.214.064.013.783.513.282.962.67
YoY Growth--1.65%5.00%3.54%1.31%6.14%7.48%7.22%10.65%10.95%14.30%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.19%2.20%2.09%1.85%2.82%2.18%2.37%2.48%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,129.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,955.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,174.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,225.80766.13459.68
Cash Retained (M)3,174.003,174.003,174.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,225.80-766.13-459.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,948.202,407.882,714.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
LTM Dividend per Share4.574.574.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.588.298.77
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Fair Value$111.63$144.83$187.30
Upside / Downside-46.97%-31.19%-11.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,129.006,137.826,146.656,155.506,164.366,173.236,358.42
Payout Ratio48.21%56.57%64.93%73.29%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,955.003,472.213,990.904,511.085,032.755,555.905,881.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Year 1 PV (M)3,246.663,279.413,312.16
Year 2 PV (M)3,489.263,560.003,631.46
Year 3 PV (M)3,687.863,800.583,915.57
Year 4 PV (M)3,847.074,004.654,167.01
Year 5 PV (M)3,971.104,175.454,388.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)146,013.07153,526.82161,346.75
Equity Value (M)164,255.03172,346.91180,761.08
Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
Fair Value$254.05$266.56$279.58
Upside / Downside20.69%26.63%32.82%

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