Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Harn Engineering Solutions Public Company Limited (HARN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.80 - $1.11$0.95
Multi-Stage$1.39 - $1.52$1.46
Blended Fair Value$1.21
Current Price$1.99
Upside-39.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.30%-1.21%0.150.130.100.130.180.160.140.090.060.09
YoY Growth--15.30%30.00%-23.08%-27.78%12.50%14.29%55.56%50.30%-33.33%-46.97%
Dividend Yield--7.07%5.91%4.72%5.56%7.32%9.04%5.98%2.96%2.30%3.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1310.086.05
Cash Retained (M)10.4910.4910.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.13-10.08-6.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.640.414.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)584.50584.50584.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Fair Value$0.80$0.95$1.11
Upside / Downside-59.88%-52.08%-44.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.6378.7876.9775.2073.4771.7973.94
Payout Ratio86.99%87.59%88.19%88.80%89.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.1469.0067.8866.7865.6864.6168.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)62.0562.6963.33
Year 2 PV (M)54.8956.0357.18
Year 3 PV (M)48.5550.0751.63
Year 4 PV (M)42.9444.7546.61
Year 5 PV (M)37.9839.9942.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)568.60598.61629.88
Equity Value (M)815.01852.14890.70
Shares Outstanding (M)584.50584.50584.50
Fair Value$1.39$1.46$1.52
Upside / Downside-29.93%-26.74%-23.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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