Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gray Media, Inc. (GTN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.20 - $47.03$29.62
Multi-Stage$14.57 - $15.91$15.23
Blended Fair Value$22.42
Current Price$4.53
Upside394.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.310.310.320.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%0.00%-3.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.64%5.14%3.55%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)62.0062.0062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2050.2554.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.20$29.62$47.03
Upside / Downside345.91%553.80%938.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.00100.11106.62113.55120.93128.79132.65
Payout Ratio34.04%45.23%56.43%67.62%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0045.2860.1676.7895.30115.91122.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.9541.3441.72
Year 2 PV (M)49.1950.1351.07
Year 3 PV (M)56.7758.4060.06
Year 4 PV (M)63.7266.1768.69
Year 5 PV (M)70.0873.4676.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,132.781,187.491,244.30
Equity Value (M)1,413.491,476.991,542.83
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
Fair Value$14.57$15.23$15.91
Upside / Downside221.68%236.13%251.11%

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