Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.59 - $165.11$121.51
Multi-Stage$142.74 - $156.88$149.67
Blended Fair Value$135.59
Current Price$46.63
Upside190.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.40%9.16%1.231.201.121.111.111.091.030.930.770.73
YoY Growth--3.13%6.37%0.84%0.38%1.39%5.97%10.96%20.18%6.81%41.31%
Dividend Yield--2.64%1.76%2.98%2.90%2.78%3.28%3.67%1.90%1.55%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8225.5115.31
Cash Retained (M)164.50164.50164.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.82-25.51-15.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.68138.99149.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.085.565.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$90.59$121.51$165.11
Upside / Downside94.27%160.59%254.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.10208.14212.25216.45220.74225.10231.86
Payout Ratio19.40%33.52%47.64%61.76%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6069.77101.12133.68167.50202.59214.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)64.7865.4366.07
Year 2 PV (M)87.1888.9190.67
Year 3 PV (M)107.01110.22113.50
Year 4 PV (M)124.49129.50134.65
Year 5 PV (M)139.82146.88154.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,062.454,267.634,481.01
Equity Value (M)4,585.734,808.575,040.12
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$142.74$149.67$156.88
Upside / Downside206.11%220.98%236.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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