Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (BA-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.96 - $37.33$27.86
Multi-Stage$55.31 - $60.85$58.02
Blended Fair Value$42.94
Current Price$12.20
Upside251.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.56%0.00%1.100.500.000.000.100.080.300.500.700.45
YoY Growth--120.21%13,468,478.57%-7.65%-100.00%23.42%-73.84%-40.00%-28.57%55.56%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.98%3.06%0.00%0.00%1.14%1.95%2.52%3.47%3.45%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,278.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,729.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.78409.86245.92
Cash Retained (M)549.84549.84549.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.78-409.86-245.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-105.94139.98303.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.44
WACC / Discount Rate5.25%5.25%5.25%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$20.96$27.86$37.33
Upside / Downside71.78%128.35%206.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,278.893,289.603,300.353,311.133,321.943,332.793,432.78
Payout Ratio83.23%84.58%85.94%87.29%88.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,729.052,782.502,836.272,890.362,944.782,999.513,175.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.25%5.25%5.25%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)2,617.442,643.792,670.14
Year 2 PV (M)2,509.742,560.532,611.83
Year 3 PV (M)2,405.882,479.282,554.16
Year 4 PV (M)2,305.772,400.042,497.17
Year 5 PV (M)2,209.302,322.782,440.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,097.84109,444.60115,008.83
Equity Value (M)116,145.98121,851.02127,783.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
Fair Value$55.31$58.02$60.85
Upside / Downside353.34%375.61%398.76%

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