Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aurizon Holdings Limited (AZJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $5.35$4.36
Multi-Stage$8.84 - $9.72$9.27
Blended Fair Value$6.82
Current Price$3.03
Upside124.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.38%-2.84%0.160.180.180.250.290.280.270.250.300.29
YoY Growth---8.90%-0.91%-28.21%-13.33%2.92%5.37%5.52%-16.27%4.33%33.59%
Dividend Yield--5.40%4.92%4.63%6.65%7.83%5.76%4.98%5.88%5.67%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)709.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)623.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.8088.6353.18
Cash Retained (M)86.0086.0086.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.80-88.63-53.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-55.80-2.6332.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Fair Value$3.49$4.36$5.35
Upside / Downside15.34%43.96%76.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)709.00698.50688.16677.97667.93658.03677.77
Payout Ratio87.87%88.30%88.72%89.15%89.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)623.00616.75610.55604.39598.29592.23626.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)574.62580.52586.41
Year 2 PV (M)529.99540.92551.95
Year 3 PV (M)488.82504.01519.51
Year 4 PV (M)450.83469.61488.97
Year 5 PV (M)415.78437.54460.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,578.8714,289.5115,029.60
Equity Value (M)16,038.9216,822.1117,636.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
Fair Value$8.84$9.27$9.72
Upside / Downside191.73%205.97%220.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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