Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

APA Corporation (APA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.59 - $37.53$32.01
Multi-Stage$40.99 - $45.01$42.96
Blended Fair Value$37.48
Current Price$24.28
Upside54.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.25%-0.33%0.970.850.570.140.341.031.051.041.041.04
YoY Growth--14.61%48.79%298.08%-57.72%-67.29%-1.57%0.53%0.26%0.53%3.29%
Dividend Yield--4.61%2.39%1.58%0.35%1.89%24.71%3.00%2.71%2.03%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,509.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)364.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)301.80188.63113.18
Cash Retained (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-301.80-188.63-113.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)843.20956.381,031.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.322.632.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.323.633.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Fair Value$26.59$32.01$37.53
Upside / Downside9.50%31.82%54.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,509.001,488.871,469.021,449.421,430.091,411.021,453.35
Payout Ratio24.12%37.30%50.47%63.65%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)364.00555.31741.46922.541,098.661,269.921,344.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.33%-1.33%-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)500.40505.52510.65
Year 2 PV (M)602.07614.46626.98
Year 3 PV (M)675.03695.98717.36
Year 4 PV (M)724.41754.54785.59
Year 5 PV (M)754.53793.96835.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,662.5212,271.9312,906.55
Equity Value (M)14,918.9615,636.3916,382.15
Shares Outstanding (M)364.00364.00364.00
Fair Value$40.99$42.96$45.01
Upside / Downside68.81%76.92%85.36%

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